* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 51 48 41 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 51 48 41 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 53 49 41 34 29 25 23 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 32 37 43 41 49 48 49 43 48 45 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 0 3 0 -3 0 2 1 -2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 267 263 259 253 261 255 256 258 267 268 273 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 134 136 136 136 139 138 136 134 132 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 51 50 47 47 47 49 50 51 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 16 17 17 13 11 10 10 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 21 27 27 7 1 -15 -20 -23 -19 -29 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 21 22 6 30 9 1 12 20 2 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 5 5 6 7 8 5 7 10 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 575 494 423 364 326 272 278 282 361 511 688 889 1088 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.1 26.8 27.6 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.3 150.2 151.0 152.0 152.9 154.7 156.5 158.4 160.3 162.4 164.4 166.4 168.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 8 10 9 10 12 10 8 7 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -26. -34. -43. -51. -57. -59. -62. -66. -71. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -25. -33. -39. -46. -51. -57. -59. -62. -66. -71. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.9 149.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/05/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##