* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 54 51 48 42 36 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 54 51 48 42 36 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 52 49 41 34 29 25 22 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 35 37 42 46 47 50 46 47 46 50 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 5 0 -1 -2 -5 1 0 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 263 262 257 257 258 255 256 260 260 271 263 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.9 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 133 133 135 135 136 138 138 136 132 133 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 53 52 49 49 47 49 46 49 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 19 17 15 13 11 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 24 26 32 29 16 0 -7 -16 -24 -31 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 26 20 31 19 16 7 -2 -1 17 -8 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 13 10 15 13 10 5 3 5 3 5 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 649 566 492 423 375 306 288 310 354 491 655 848 1044 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.6 25.4 26.2 26.9 27.7 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.5 150.3 151.3 152.2 154.0 155.8 157.8 159.7 161.7 163.7 165.7 167.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 7 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -25. -34. -43. -51. -56. -59. -63. -67. -72. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -12. -18. -24. -30. -39. -45. -52. -56. -59. -62. -65. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.9 148.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##