* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 56 53 47 40 35 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 56 53 47 40 35 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 56 53 45 37 31 27 24 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 28 30 35 39 43 47 45 49 41 46 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 2 0 1 -3 -3 -1 2 1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 270 267 267 260 254 253 252 255 258 263 263 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 134 133 137 137 136 139 140 135 134 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -52.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 55 55 53 51 50 50 51 48 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 19 18 16 14 13 12 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 26 26 23 32 16 10 -2 -7 -16 -13 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 11 28 24 28 27 2 10 14 25 26 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 9 13 9 9 10 10 6 4 8 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 701 611 528 446 375 284 236 252 298 445 635 837 1050 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.1 22.0 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.7 26.4 27.0 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.1 149.0 149.8 150.7 151.6 153.5 155.4 157.4 159.6 161.8 164.1 166.3 168.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 8 8 8 11 11 12 12 11 8 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -23. -32. -40. -47. -52. -57. -60. -64. -68. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -7. -13. -20. -25. -33. -38. -43. -47. -53. -56. -60. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.3 148.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##