* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 86 82 79 72 65 63 62 57 54 48 44 43 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 90 88 86 82 79 72 65 63 62 57 54 48 44 43 44 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 84 79 75 65 58 53 49 46 41 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 12 14 15 14 15 18 26 33 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 10 9 7 5 1 2 3 0 2 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 282 279 283 293 296 281 282 260 250 241 255 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 140 139 136 136 134 137 138 136 136 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 68 70 69 68 66 63 63 60 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 22 22 22 20 20 20 18 17 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -3 3 14 23 30 38 36 47 27 23 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 6 22 30 28 9 12 25 51 40 17 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 8 7 10 8 8 3 1 7 12 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1507 1396 1284 1185 1086 913 732 542 352 169 77 57 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.8 142.8 143.7 144.5 145.4 146.8 148.3 149.9 151.5 153.2 155.1 157.0 158.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 16 17 14 12 8 13 15 17 20 14 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -3. -3. -7. -8. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -11. -18. -25. -27. -28. -33. -36. -42. -46. -47. -46. -46. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.1 141.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.22 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 14.6% 13.9% 11.0% 8.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 7.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 8.1% 5.3% 4.1% 2.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##