* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 87 84 81 74 72 70 67 64 61 58 51 47 45 42 V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 87 84 81 74 72 70 67 64 61 58 51 47 45 42 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 85 82 78 72 68 64 62 60 57 55 52 48 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 10 9 9 10 10 11 18 27 31 37 38 41 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 11 7 7 10 8 1 5 2 2 1 0 -3 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 298 296 318 315 328 339 300 307 275 267 268 260 260 262 267 259 266 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 147 141 136 138 139 138 138 138 138 136 135 137 140 142 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 67 68 67 67 67 66 63 62 58 57 54 54 52 53 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 20 22 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 13 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 8 9 1 21 30 39 42 48 40 30 21 3 -11 -14 -15 200 MB DIV 29 40 31 19 15 26 10 24 16 19 17 12 23 0 -12 21 6 700-850 TADV 9 9 7 7 7 8 9 5 5 7 4 6 2 0 -3 1 -4 LAND (KM) 1874 1732 1591 1469 1347 1149 980 822 650 468 295 141 81 35 36 38 195 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.4 139.7 141.0 142.1 143.2 144.9 146.3 147.6 149.0 150.5 152.0 153.5 155.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 18 15 14 12 11 14 19 18 16 16 13 13 10 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. -25. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. -39. -43. -45. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.4 138.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.28 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.55 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 339.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.49 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 19.5% 18.8% 15.2% 11.5% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 18.8% 7.3% 5.1% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 12.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 16.8% 9.2% 7.0% 4.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##