* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 92 91 88 83 80 75 72 71 69 67 65 60 59 55 53 V (KT) LAND 90 92 92 91 88 83 80 75 72 71 69 67 65 59 58 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 90 92 91 87 82 74 69 67 65 65 64 63 61 52 56 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 13 9 7 8 10 10 15 15 16 23 30 31 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 10 8 9 5 4 3 0 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 302 278 275 285 295 287 282 283 281 298 284 278 260 261 258 257 244 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 144 141 144 141 136 136 136 135 136 137 141 143 145 144 146 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 69 70 71 71 68 64 63 59 59 57 54 48 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 24 23 23 24 22 22 23 22 21 20 18 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 0 0 2 6 28 33 43 46 51 42 45 36 23 20 19 200 MB DIV 85 53 23 26 30 22 25 10 29 27 20 -2 7 1 8 1 3 700-850 TADV 10 15 16 14 10 5 8 9 8 10 12 9 8 3 6 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2186 2018 1851 1707 1563 1320 1122 964 784 609 439 272 97 2 77 111 306 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.5 137.0 138.5 139.8 141.1 143.2 144.9 146.2 147.7 149.2 150.7 152.2 153.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 12 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 14 9 11 16 12 10 12 16 16 15 18 19 17 24 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -24. -25. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -10. -15. -18. -19. -21. -23. -25. -30. -31. -35. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 12.9 135.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.26 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.39 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 20.5% 19.7% 16.2% 12.1% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.2% 29.1% 12.5% 9.6% 1.3% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 16.0% 39.0% 17.7% 7.4% 0.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.7% 29.5% 16.6% 11.1% 4.5% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##