* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 74 77 79 77 69 65 61 57 56 56 53 51 47 44 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 74 77 79 77 69 65 61 57 56 56 53 51 47 44 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 70 72 71 66 61 55 51 49 48 48 47 45 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 10 12 16 12 10 11 13 15 21 18 27 28 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 5 7 5 6 5 1 -2 -6 -6 0 0 1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 321 322 303 272 260 283 277 266 266 272 258 242 239 233 238 243 253 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.4 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 156 157 150 150 143 139 136 134 131 133 137 135 135 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 68 71 72 76 79 78 77 75 74 72 67 64 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 23 22 21 21 20 21 21 20 21 23 22 21 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -12 -8 -3 -11 -10 0 15 23 34 25 29 30 35 20 23 200 MB DIV 101 97 102 95 96 49 52 54 50 25 38 59 92 46 46 15 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 9 13 15 12 13 12 8 5 5 8 4 9 6 1 LAND (KM) 2346 2427 2511 2477 2302 1983 1719 1496 1289 1118 962 816 656 491 341 240 178 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.5 130.0 131.5 133.0 134.6 137.4 139.7 141.6 143.3 144.7 146.0 147.2 148.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 16 15 13 11 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 30 37 27 29 10 8 12 9 6 8 17 12 11 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 22. 24. 22. 14. 10. 6. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 10.4 128.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.65 15.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 13.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 9.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.73 13.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -11.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 14.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 10.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 84% is 6.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.0% 84.0% 74.2% 65.2% 46.8% 53.9% 32.2% 12.9% Logistic: 57.5% 76.5% 64.8% 55.8% 15.5% 49.8% 17.0% 14.0% Bayesian: 64.0% 88.7% 89.7% 87.0% 13.6% 57.2% 37.4% 2.0% Consensus: 57.8% 83.1% 76.2% 69.3% 25.3% 53.6% 28.9% 9.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##