* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082015 07/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 37 36 37 39 41 43 46 49 52 54 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 37 36 37 39 41 43 46 49 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 31 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 16 13 13 10 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 332 340 350 346 342 329 310 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.0 27.2 26.4 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 142 144 145 144 135 137 129 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 57 55 49 47 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -13 -5 2 -10 -17 -29 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -14 -1 -5 -24 -20 -29 -25 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 3 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1809 1873 1943 2021 2102 2183 1907 1609 1323 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.4 129.5 130.7 131.8 134.2 136.8 139.6 142.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 15 18 20 22 5 8 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.1 127.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082015 EIGHT 07/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.79 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.21 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.74 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 8.1% 8.1% 5.9% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.2% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082015 EIGHT 07/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##