* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 15 19 25 30 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -1 0 0 2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 360 356 330 313 279 268 253 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 23.1 22.3 22.2 22.2 21.5 20.8 20.5 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 93 85 85 84 76 67 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 47 49 47 47 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 15 14 11 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 47 35 26 16 7 -2 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -1 11 8 8 4 1 -10 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 4 3 2 9 0 0 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 597 567 535 493 483 454 404 353 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.6 24.4 25.5 26.6 28.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.3 118.8 119.3 119.7 120.4 120.6 120.5 120.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 10 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -14. -18. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -13. -21. -27. -29. -30. -32. -35. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -20. -21. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -15. -21. -29. -37. -51. -59. -66. -71. -75. -80. -84. -90. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.7 117.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##