* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 35 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 15 17 14 21 21 32 31 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 9 2 9 356 325 291 275 254 239 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.1 24.3 23.1 22.6 22.2 21.8 21.4 21.0 20.8 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 105 93 88 84 79 74 68 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 55 52 50 45 44 40 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 20 18 16 13 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 74 63 59 46 17 1 -18 -13 -1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 1 -18 -7 11 3 -1 -11 -12 -5 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 2 -1 6 6 3 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 557 577 611 590 565 526 520 483 454 416 378 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.4 24.2 26.2 28.1 29.7 30.5 30.8 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.1 117.8 118.4 119.0 120.0 120.8 121.2 121.3 121.1 120.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 11 9 6 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -15. -22. -23. -25. -27. -29. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -20. -24. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -18. -25. -33. -43. -53. -65. -73. -76. -80. -83. -87. -92. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.5 116.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##