* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 57 53 49 39 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 62 57 53 49 39 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 61 55 50 46 38 31 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 4 8 12 13 21 26 27 27 28 25 25 26 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 1 0 3 2 1 0 -7 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 106 69 72 36 355 1 310 289 261 260 245 242 235 217 210 215 212 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.7 22.9 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.5 22.1 22.6 22.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 117 113 109 91 83 82 78 73 71 71 74 81 86 88 90 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 62 59 57 56 54 50 48 45 43 37 30 25 22 23 27 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 29 29 27 25 22 19 16 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 63 64 68 68 66 57 34 23 -4 -8 0 19 22 8 -3 -13 -14 200 MB DIV 37 0 0 9 5 13 15 -8 -16 -1 -7 -4 -13 -7 4 9 -9 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -1 -6 5 2 6 7 -2 -6 -7 -9 -2 3 11 LAND (KM) 442 454 476 501 539 552 509 540 549 537 521 559 622 714 802 848 907 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.7 25.6 27.7 29.2 30.1 30.5 30.3 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.6 115.4 116.2 116.9 118.2 119.5 120.7 121.7 122.4 123.0 123.4 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 10 7 4 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -27. -31. -37. -42. -46. -50. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -24. -27. -28. -27. -27. -25. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -21. -31. -39. -49. -58. -70. -78. -86. -94.-101.-107.-113.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.0 113.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##