* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 17 19 16 16 13 12 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 1 4 3 1 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 196 191 190 196 208 203 222 222 255 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 105 104 104 106 108 109 109 108 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 42 39 37 35 35 33 26 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 52 49 48 48 45 40 18 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -4 2 7 -5 -21 -14 -6 -8 -24 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1954 1912 1871 1839 1808 1777 1767 1757 1758 1758 1758 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.4 20.0 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.1 136.5 136.9 137.2 137.5 137.8 137.9 138.0 138.0 138.0 138.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -36. -38. -39. -41. -41. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 136.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##