* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 26 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 12 13 15 16 17 13 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 231 198 191 195 189 193 202 211 201 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 109 108 106 106 108 109 109 108 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 41 39 38 36 34 33 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 16 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 58 55 51 51 48 42 46 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 24 16 2 3 -6 -14 -5 -11 -2 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 5 5 5 4 0 -2 -3 0 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2040 1986 1934 1881 1829 1756 1735 1726 1726 1726 1726 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.3 20.0 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.3 135.8 136.3 136.8 137.3 138.0 138.2 138.3 138.3 138.3 138.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -23. -28. -33. -35. -36. -37. -39. -39. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.7 135.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##