* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 125 131 131 131 117 104 92 81 69 57 47 41 36 31 26 20 V (KT) LAND 115 125 131 131 131 117 104 92 81 69 57 47 41 36 31 26 20 V (KT) LGEM 115 125 128 126 121 106 94 83 72 59 48 40 34 30 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 1 2 11 9 7 5 5 4 5 7 10 8 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 -4 -4 -1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 275 305 329 60 152 110 60 48 80 77 36 32 307 329 299 274 272 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 26.8 26.8 25.8 25.0 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.1 22.7 22.4 22.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 148 145 141 130 131 121 113 89 93 95 93 88 84 83 80 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 74 70 68 66 62 57 57 56 55 52 51 46 44 40 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 34 33 36 36 35 35 34 32 29 27 25 24 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 44 69 71 84 86 90 91 77 47 30 1 2 -6 -8 -26 200 MB DIV 71 56 77 100 66 40 7 0 0 0 -4 7 -7 -15 -1 -3 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 -3 -3 -1 3 -6 -2 -4 3 4 3 LAND (KM) 468 489 459 436 423 425 502 545 615 662 679 747 803 787 758 753 771 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 20.1 20.6 21.1 22.0 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.1 111.6 112.8 114.2 115.8 117.5 119.2 120.8 122.3 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 11 8 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -12. -21. -31. -40. -49. -57. -62. -66. -70. -75. -80. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 8. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 11. 14. 14. 12. 7. 2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 3. 6. 6. 7. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 16. 16. 16. 2. -11. -23. -34. -46. -58. -68. -74. -79. -84. -89. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.2 109.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -20.0 to 40.0 1.00 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.0% 29.8% 26.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 68.8% 57.8% 45.0% 38.4% 40.0% 4.6% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 41.7% 29.3% 23.7% 12.8% 13.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##