* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 99 106 115 120 124 117 105 92 77 65 55 47 40 34 29 22 V (KT) LAND 90 99 106 115 120 124 117 105 92 77 65 55 47 40 34 29 22 V (KT) LGEM 90 99 105 109 112 112 103 93 81 69 56 46 38 33 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 3 1 9 7 11 6 5 3 5 4 12 6 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -7 -4 -5 -6 -3 -4 -1 0 0 1 -1 1 -4 -1 4 4 SHEAR DIR 226 272 296 320 55 113 89 43 86 86 86 20 286 303 289 280 248 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.1 23.8 23.0 23.1 23.1 22.5 22.4 22.8 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 152 150 136 130 124 113 100 93 93 93 86 84 89 83 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 70 68 65 59 59 59 59 56 55 49 43 39 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 28 29 34 33 36 35 35 35 32 31 30 27 25 22 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 19 31 25 43 66 67 89 79 84 76 51 24 6 1 4 -13 -20 200 MB DIV 105 66 58 75 97 44 34 -3 13 -4 13 2 -3 -13 -15 -1 2 700-850 TADV 5 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 1 -1 0 -4 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 421 447 467 435 411 389 434 480 521 591 587 643 701 706 651 636 629 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.0 23.0 24.4 26.1 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.9 112.1 113.4 114.9 116.4 117.9 119.5 121.2 122.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 9 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 15 13 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -12. -18. -23. -29. -33. -37. -41. -46. -50. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 10. 9. 7. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 25. 30. 34. 27. 15. 2. -13. -25. -35. -43. -50. -56. -61. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.1 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.32 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.63 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.0% 43.8% 31.8% 25.6% 18.2% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.9% 43.8% 23.9% 15.3% 14.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 25.4% 14.3% 10.7% 7.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 29.1% 34.0% 22.1% 16.1% 11.8% 8.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##