* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 85 93 101 113 117 112 102 88 73 62 53 45 39 32 23 V (KT) LAND 70 76 85 93 101 113 117 112 102 88 73 62 53 45 39 32 23 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 85 90 101 110 107 97 83 69 54 44 36 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 6 3 4 3 6 3 8 8 8 4 7 9 13 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 -3 1 2 6 0 -1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 313 327 357 341 1 91 68 71 46 88 51 55 322 280 269 240 243 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.2 26.9 26.3 25.3 24.1 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.4 22.5 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 156 155 155 152 145 132 126 116 103 92 93 92 85 86 82 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 74 72 71 68 64 61 56 54 48 46 43 44 41 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 29 30 32 34 38 38 37 34 30 28 25 21 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 32 52 47 73 69 93 82 103 96 67 61 44 15 15 13 200 MB DIV 66 72 89 67 70 73 49 45 -2 15 -10 28 4 9 10 15 1 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -3 1 -3 1 -4 3 0 6 0 LAND (KM) 366 393 419 441 465 437 402 424 479 511 602 602 635 666 676 567 501 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.8 24.1 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.2 109.6 110.5 111.6 113.0 114.5 116.1 117.8 119.4 120.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 21 19 17 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 14. 18. 19. 15. 9. 6. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 20. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 23. 31. 43. 47. 42. 32. 18. 3. -8. -17. -25. -31. -38. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.6 107.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.91 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.6% 51.1% 36.4% 26.4% 20.9% 25.9% 16.4% 11.2% Logistic: 22.9% 59.1% 31.9% 18.9% 13.5% 10.3% 1.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 7.1% 20.1% 12.1% 7.2% 0.9% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 18.9% 43.4% 26.8% 17.5% 11.8% 13.6% 6.1% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##