* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 80 89 99 112 116 110 107 99 89 77 69 62 57 55 49 V (KT) LAND 65 72 80 89 99 112 116 110 107 99 89 77 69 62 57 55 49 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 83 90 102 109 114 109 99 87 74 63 54 50 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 7 1 6 5 5 7 1 10 7 6 4 5 9 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 276 301 303 325 304 357 16 43 123 142 99 75 46 19 334 293 N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.6 27.7 26.4 26.1 25.3 24.6 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 161 159 157 155 148 140 127 124 115 108 95 95 98 99 89 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 73 71 69 67 66 63 60 59 56 53 48 47 44 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 26 29 31 34 33 38 38 37 35 34 34 31 32 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 11 15 23 46 47 68 86 89 103 102 99 81 93 90 N/A 200 MB DIV 86 94 69 79 79 44 66 49 57 27 15 -8 -2 5 9 -5 N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 -8 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 N/A LAND (KM) 271 291 324 354 384 447 446 405 418 475 504 584 657 700 787 888 982 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.4 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.4 109.4 110.4 111.4 112.7 114.2 115.8 117.4 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 28 24 21 16 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 79.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 12. 14. 22. 22. 21. 17. 15. 13. 9. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 16. 24. 22. 13. 3. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 34. 47. 51. 45. 42. 34. 24. 12. 4. -3. -8. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.2 106.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.64 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.89 -10.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 10.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.28 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.1% 62.2% 47.6% 36.5% 27.4% 34.6% 22.6% 12.4% Logistic: 31.9% 64.7% 46.1% 26.4% 34.0% 22.6% 3.7% 3.1% Bayesian: 12.0% 54.5% 40.0% 42.9% 32.2% 16.0% 4.0% 0.2% Consensus: 25.6% 60.5% 44.6% 35.3% 31.2% 24.4% 10.1% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##