* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL032015 07/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 51 51 47 44 40 37 31 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 51 51 47 36 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 52 52 50 45 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 34 34 35 36 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 240 244 250 258 281 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 25.7 26.0 22.5 18.1 13.2 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 113 116 92 77 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 97 99 81 71 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.8 -56.1 -56.4 -56.1 -55.6 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 54 55 62 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -45 -64 -69 -56 -23 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 0 -6 20 22 3 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 15 26 29 44 29 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 501 467 426 322 267 73 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.7 39.7 41.1 42.4 45.5 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.5 66.1 64.8 63.4 62.0 59.3 56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 0 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 16 CX,CY: 14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -13. -17. -22. -27. -31. -37. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -1. -5. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. -34. -37. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.6 67.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032015 CLAUDETTE 07/13/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032015 CLAUDETTE 07/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032015 CLAUDETTE 07/13/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 51 51 51 47 36 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 46 42 31 25 25 25 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 37 26 20 20 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT