* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062015 07/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 42 44 43 42 40 38 37 36 33 31 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 42 44 43 42 40 38 37 36 33 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 35 34 32 30 29 27 25 23 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 9 11 9 9 11 11 11 11 12 11 16 23 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -5 -6 -2 -2 1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 -5 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 31 67 109 132 152 176 181 179 188 177 186 175 175 174 187 199 N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 138 139 139 135 132 129 126 122 120 118 117 117 116 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 67 62 57 55 55 54 54 53 50 47 44 38 32 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 107 102 95 99 90 67 54 48 52 50 52 55 66 62 69 N/A 200 MB DIV 82 85 71 41 27 29 -6 -5 -15 -14 -1 -7 3 -10 -18 -19 N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -6 -6 N/A LAND (KM) 1878 1892 1909 1934 1946 2012 2095 2209 2167 2019 1890 1813 1757 1724 1722 1743 1774 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.3 126.9 127.6 128.3 129.8 131.3 132.9 134.4 135.8 137.0 137.7 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 28 31 24 13 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 23. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 125.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 SIX 07/12/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 19.6% 19.2% 15.3% 0.0% 16.0% 14.2% 12.5% Logistic: 1.2% 4.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.6% 1.4% 4.6% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.8% 7.3% 5.5% 0.2% 5.8% 6.3% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 SIX 07/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##