* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 40 44 47 49 49 49 49 48 49 51 54 55 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 40 44 47 49 49 49 49 48 49 51 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 36 39 42 46 50 54 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 11 8 5 4 11 10 14 10 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -6 -6 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -7 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 111 125 140 131 125 54 48 60 54 56 33 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 135 138 138 139 143 143 143 144 146 146 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 51 51 50 52 50 51 49 48 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 43 44 40 45 49 36 34 32 25 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 6 6 1 -17 -17 -12 6 -8 -11 -27 -38 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 0 -1 1 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 618 706 788 834 889 1045 1213 1393 1575 1757 1922 2058 2197 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.1 13.6 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.1 162.0 163.0 163.9 165.9 167.8 169.8 171.8 173.7 175.5 177.0 178.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 17 27 41 37 33 28 28 50 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 14. 16. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 160.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 0.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##