* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052015 07/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 48 61 74 81 91 94 95 100 99 94 93 94 92 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 48 61 74 81 91 94 95 100 99 94 93 94 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 36 40 49 59 69 79 86 92 98 99 94 92 91 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 2 1 4 12 17 12 10 10 2 2 6 15 10 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -10 -3 -3 -5 -6 -5 -4 -3 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 89 90 120 297 307 304 325 321 337 316 304 168 87 50 59 58 53 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.2 27.1 27.2 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 168 170 167 167 163 160 156 150 148 142 134 133 135 128 133 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 5 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 81 79 78 73 73 74 72 71 68 66 66 62 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 17 16 20 24 26 31 35 36 42 43 42 42 44 41 850 MB ENV VOR 19 4 0 -1 -6 -8 19 22 49 41 71 87 121 115 123 144 144 200 MB DIV 107 84 61 57 61 86 98 74 69 48 61 48 32 -9 16 0 17 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 317 306 294 286 252 253 253 292 338 394 389 381 421 496 599 724 830 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.9 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.7 101.7 102.7 103.7 105.3 106.5 107.4 108.3 109.2 110.1 111.0 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 39 37 44 44 41 33 27 20 13 10 7 3 3 4 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 11. 17. 27. 32. 34. 38. 36. 31. 29. 28. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 31. 44. 51. 61. 64. 65. 70. 69. 64. 63. 64. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 99.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 FIVE 07/12/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 30.0 to 135.0 1.00 9.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.90 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -14.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.93 -6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.44 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 26.4% 25.1% 20.8% 0.0% 26.2% 25.5% 41.2% Logistic: 2.1% 21.4% 12.4% 3.8% 1.8% 14.6% 46.8% 48.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 21.8% Consensus: 5.3% 16.8% 13.2% 8.3% 0.6% 13.6% 24.2% 37.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 FIVE 07/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##