* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 46 51 56 56 57 57 58 58 59 59 60 61 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 46 51 56 56 57 57 58 58 59 59 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 44 47 50 53 57 62 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 9 7 8 6 12 12 15 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -3 -5 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 128 120 130 119 121 110 102 68 54 48 38 18 351 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 134 134 136 135 139 142 146 145 144 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 55 53 51 52 51 50 51 50 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 37 38 41 39 40 46 46 31 29 23 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 7 5 -9 -10 -20 -15 -4 -4 -3 2 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 532 578 634 707 767 864 1014 1188 1354 1533 1702 1854 2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 14.8 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.6 159.5 160.3 161.2 162.0 163.8 165.7 167.8 169.8 171.8 173.6 175.1 176.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 9 7 8 10 26 36 29 36 37 28 47 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 16. 21. 21. 22. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.0 158.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 15.6% 31.1% 17.7% 15.2% 6.9% 15.1% 10.0% 12.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##