* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 65 71 74 73 66 60 55 55 56 56 57 58 58 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 65 71 74 73 66 60 55 55 56 56 57 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 62 68 72 74 72 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 10 14 12 9 7 10 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 0 2 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 356 351 350 347 12 303 280 281 257 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 154 153 148 147 148 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 65 67 68 66 66 67 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 89 84 87 99 108 88 82 72 68 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 16 17 26 30 61 50 37 36 25 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 -1 0 1 0 3 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2082 2160 2242 2317 2397 2560 2741 2925 2686 2459 2226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 175.8 176.9 178.0 179.1 180.2 182.4 184.7 186.9 189.1 191.2 193.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 38 39 51 67 41 55 32 31 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 20. 26. 29. 28. 21. 15. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.5 175.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 65.1% 77.9% 63.3% 55.7% 57.7% 25.7% 14.0% 23.7% Bayesian: 11.7% 88.1% 56.3% 44.1% 68.5% 72.2% 80.2% 4.4% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##