* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022015 07/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 36 40 45 48 48 49 51 52 53 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 36 40 45 48 48 49 51 52 53 54 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 39 42 45 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 10 10 9 9 8 12 16 12 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 0 1 -3 -3 1 -3 -8 -7 -4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 110 107 107 97 108 99 108 64 50 48 70 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.0 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 137 135 133 135 135 134 138 144 145 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 61 58 55 51 51 50 47 46 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 21 21 30 28 29 34 36 30 29 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 16 23 31 28 -24 -24 -31 -12 -5 -8 -6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 636 591 557 566 585 704 839 913 1012 1161 1338 1531 1733 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.7 156.4 157.1 157.9 158.7 160.5 162.3 164.2 166.1 168.2 170.4 172.6 174.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 17 30 32 19 8 9 28 32 24 46 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 18. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 155.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.6% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 1.7% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##