* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 44 47 52 56 58 55 50 46 46 46 47 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 44 47 52 56 58 55 50 46 46 46 47 48 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 44 46 49 51 53 52 49 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 8 8 9 6 13 18 12 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 195 225 258 305 306 327 242 261 268 276 265 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 150 150 148 148 145 143 144 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 58 60 63 66 65 63 66 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 107 105 103 97 91 82 71 57 37 32 27 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 18 22 1 2 44 58 55 31 3 7 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 6 3 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1752 1814 1881 1952 2027 2192 2355 2528 2706 2883 2683 2475 2283 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.6 173.6 174.5 175.5 176.6 178.8 180.9 183.0 185.1 187.1 189.1 191.1 193.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 41 49 57 56 54 55 45 27 29 32 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 23. 20. 15. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 172.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 45.7% 74.9% 58.6% 48.8% 52.4% 47.8% 55.2% 45.8% Bayesian: 6.0% 76.9% 24.3% 13.1% 31.1% 48.8% 63.8% 3.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##