* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012015 07/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 44 48 50 51 46 46 44 46 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 44 48 50 51 46 46 44 46 48 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 35 36 38 40 40 39 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 6 6 8 9 9 11 12 18 18 18 20 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -5 -6 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 2 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 220 221 216 244 298 286 294 254 248 248 256 259 264 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 151 150 151 147 148 146 145 145 143 145 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 60 62 60 62 67 69 67 64 66 63 56 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 14 15 12 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 109 105 105 106 96 82 79 68 53 33 31 23 -14 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 12 27 29 26 15 37 68 93 71 30 20 0 17 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1 6 5 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1613 1677 1744 1815 1889 2037 2197 2345 2496 2658 2829 2737 2532 2516 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.8 171.7 172.6 173.6 174.6 176.7 178.8 180.7 182.6 184.6 186.6 188.6 190.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 37 38 41 50 55 55 54 49 27 29 32 26 29 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. -2. -1. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 21. 16. 16. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 170.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 8.4% 32.9% 17.5% 10.4% 9.3% 11.4% 21.6% 32.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 18.9% 1.8% 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 5.8% 4.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##