* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042015 07/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 31 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 31 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 14 17 21 21 23 31 40 44 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 5 3 3 2 2 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 234 230 228 228 224 227 215 220 222 232 247 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.4 25.6 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 120 120 122 123 126 125 128 129 129 120 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 75 72 69 69 64 60 55 50 50 51 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 14 11 9 6 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 59 60 48 30 6 -2 -12 -19 -30 -37 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 68 54 49 25 -5 16 14 10 21 11 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 2 4 10 3 7 0 5 6 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1428 1293 1161 1044 930 720 558 432 351 332 354 507 723 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.7 21.8 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.4 26.4 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.7 143.8 144.9 145.9 148.0 150.0 152.1 154.3 156.6 159.1 161.6 164.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -7. -14. -23. -27. -30. -31. -33. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -23. -25. -25. -26. -28. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 141.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##