* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 77 78 75 72 68 60 57 55 55 55 57 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 77 78 75 72 68 60 57 53 54 54 56 58 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 79 78 77 75 74 71 67 64 60 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 8 9 7 6 4 1 4 7 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -2 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 46 52 58 77 49 86 67 358 207 246 213 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.1 28.4 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 161 162 154 147 145 149 153 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 66 67 65 63 61 59 58 57 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 13 14 10 9 8 5 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 37 37 21 13 17 6 15 -5 5 -18 15 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 52 47 45 59 27 43 23 -2 0 -24 0 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -1 2 1 0 0 -1 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 174 162 150 142 135 129 79 53 10 2 66 112 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.9 101.3 102.2 103.2 104.1 104.9 105.5 106.1 106.8 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 42 39 38 40 50 25 11 10 12 16 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -5. -8. -11. -16. -22. -25. -25. -24. -23. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 2. 3. 0. -3. -7. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -18. -16. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.1 99.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.41 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.3% 33.4% 28.5% 23.3% 17.1% 20.5% 14.6% 10.8% Logistic: 9.5% 18.2% 11.0% 5.3% 2.8% 3.7% 1.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 12.6% 62.6% 45.7% 26.4% 6.7% 28.9% 8.6% 0.2% Consensus: 16.5% 38.0% 28.4% 18.3% 8.9% 17.7% 8.3% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##