* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 58 63 64 65 63 56 54 54 53 52 50 47 45 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 58 63 64 65 63 56 54 54 53 52 50 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 52 52 51 52 53 53 50 50 51 52 50 47 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 16 14 6 7 4 4 4 6 9 14 21 19 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 4 3 3 1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 7 5 9 SHEAR DIR 43 43 39 55 39 47 9 8 56 117 151 204 187 208 195 213 205 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.5 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 157 158 161 158 151 148 149 148 145 143 139 132 122 111 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 7 9 6 8 6 7 5 7 4 6 2 6 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 67 69 68 66 62 60 57 56 54 51 49 48 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 18 17 16 13 13 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 36 31 41 28 26 14 14 9 11 -3 -8 0 1 16 9 200 MB DIV 91 70 68 51 42 38 67 27 44 -8 -10 -30 -17 -12 -5 -9 -7 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 0 1 3 2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 5 14 15 16 LAND (KM) 228 217 207 202 198 183 189 154 130 77 77 151 158 84 76 50 0 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.3 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.3 100.4 100.6 100.9 101.7 102.7 103.7 104.6 105.5 106.3 107.0 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 42 40 37 30 23 15 11 11 10 10 9 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 13. 14. 15. 13. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 100.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.11 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.42 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 24.1% 22.3% 17.7% 12.9% 20.1% 16.7% 16.3% Logistic: 3.1% 15.5% 5.6% 2.5% 0.8% 4.4% 2.7% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 9.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.6% 3.4% 1.0% Consensus: 5.3% 16.4% 10.3% 7.0% 4.6% 8.7% 7.6% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##