* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032015 06/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 60 66 72 71 68 66 64 61 56 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 60 66 72 71 68 66 64 61 56 54 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 51 54 56 56 55 55 54 51 48 45 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 16 12 16 16 15 9 10 9 9 8 12 8 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 5 8 8 9 8 5 4 5 -1 0 1 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 67 56 47 50 55 53 48 45 61 47 56 63 57 74 107 127 156 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.4 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.6 26.8 25.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 155 155 157 159 161 157 150 146 140 139 130 111 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -50.9 -51.3 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 8 10 8 10 8 10 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 72 73 71 69 68 63 59 58 57 54 53 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 18 19 19 19 17 14 13 11 8 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 44 35 42 43 40 59 46 61 46 47 29 30 14 14 20 17 18 200 MB DIV 78 93 89 86 86 80 35 51 48 50 31 35 1 -8 -30 -2 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -2 0 3 3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 379 360 341 316 290 256 220 192 187 189 185 206 207 236 266 286 156 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.5 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.6 100.7 101.0 101.8 102.9 104.1 105.1 106.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 39 40 41 42 42 39 31 22 15 11 7 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 32. 33. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 5. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 37. 36. 33. 31. 29. 26. 21. 19. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 100.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.67 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.36 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.40 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.78 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 21.0% 20.2% 16.3% 0.0% 18.0% 15.8% 22.4% Logistic: 3.6% 20.9% 9.4% 3.9% 1.2% 6.4% 4.1% 8.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 29.5% 10.9% 2.7% 0.5% 9.5% 13.7% 1.0% Consensus: 5.5% 23.8% 13.5% 7.6% 0.6% 11.3% 11.2% 10.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##