* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 38 32 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 26 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 19 27 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 8 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 185 196 209 204 206 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 22.7 22.1 22.3 22.3 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 90 84 86 86 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 57 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 19 17 15 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 26 22 27 21 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 16 31 42 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 1 -3 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 96 38 20 -26 -48 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.8 28.0 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.8 112.3 112.8 113.3 114.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -12. -18. -22. -24. -26. -27. -30. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -28. -37. -43. -52. -59. -66. -71. -74. -78. -82. -87. -92. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.1 111.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##