* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 38 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 47 38 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 45 37 32 26 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 15 15 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 6 11 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 152 172 197 203 191 213 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 24.3 22.8 22.1 21.7 22.1 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 106 91 84 79 83 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 3 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 56 56 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 20 18 15 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 42 27 18 27 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 23 11 24 40 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 -1 -1 -2 -7 0 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 158 115 54 20 7 -13 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 23.0 24.1 25.3 26.4 28.7 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.5 111.8 112.3 112.8 113.4 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -20. -23. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -7. -12. -19. -24. -27. -27. -27. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -25. -32. -44. -51. -58. -63. -68. -71. -72. -75. -77. -81. -86. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.9 111.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##