* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 99 92 83 61 41 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 103 99 92 83 61 42 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 96 86 75 55 40 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 15 18 19 16 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 0 1 5 4 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 117 114 124 137 140 177 215 212 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 26.9 25.9 25.6 23.7 22.3 22.1 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 133 122 119 99 85 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 59 58 54 51 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 35 34 32 24 19 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 61 68 64 58 57 24 23 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 31 -17 -22 -26 2 34 31 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 3 0 -2 2 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 504 467 380 282 196 109 30 -67 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.4 23.3 25.3 27.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.7 111.0 111.7 112.4 113.2 113.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -28. -38. -48. -54. -59. -63. -66. -68. -71. -75. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -9. -17. -31. -39. -39. -39. -37. -33. -30. -27. -25. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -13. -22. -44. -64. -88.-104.-109.-113.-115.-115.-115.-115.-115.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.9 109.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 463.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 9 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##