* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 83 87 92 96 96 85 66 46 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 83 87 92 96 96 85 66 46 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 78 79 80 81 78 67 52 40 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 4 6 9 10 22 22 22 15 15 17 13 9 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 7 11 11 8 13 7 2 6 4 8 4 8 3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 131 106 86 116 113 127 129 121 132 152 171 158 175 182 173 170 209 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.5 28.8 28.3 27.4 27.1 25.5 24.5 22.5 21.7 20.9 20.5 20.3 20.3 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 160 152 147 137 134 117 107 86 77 68 63 60 60 57 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 75 73 66 61 56 52 48 43 37 35 31 27 23 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 40 40 40 40 35 28 21 15 7 6 2 3 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 74 79 83 84 90 76 62 70 62 69 40 28 8 -2 -10 -2 -16 200 MB DIV 122 114 77 90 108 48 35 -2 -46 -27 1 -4 6 17 18 15 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 655 619 591 568 547 500 477 411 259 121 71 29 61 22 -1 -17 -11 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 16.5 17.9 19.2 20.6 22.2 23.7 25.0 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.6 106.1 106.7 107.4 108.6 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.6 112.5 113.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 92 87 83 58 30 23 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -16. -21. -26. -31. -36. -43. -49. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -2. -11. -21. -29. -38. -36. -36. -33. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -2. 2. 7. 12. 11. -0. -19. -39. -57. -74. -81. -90. -95. -99.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 12.5 105.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 10.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##