* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 38 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 34 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 28 29 26 26 26 29 29 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 14 9 1 -3 -1 0 1 5 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 247 244 239 231 231 211 199 185 158 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.9 23.4 24.2 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 88 88 89 88 87 87 88 94 103 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 42 40 36 31 29 30 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 18 17 16 13 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 45 34 37 30 29 13 16 11 21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -4 -17 -20 -20 -33 -46 -23 -3 -16 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 2 2 -1 -1 -8 -7 -12 -14 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1344 1336 1328 1320 1312 1305 1299 1290 1254 1194 1144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.3 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.2 125.1 125.0 124.8 124.5 124.1 123.5 122.6 121.5 120.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -27. -35. -46. -58. -68. -74. -80. -84. -86. -89. -91. -94. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.1 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##