* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 69 60 50 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 79 69 60 50 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 79 69 59 50 38 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 8 10 15 24 29 28 18 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 7 3 4 11 3 1 5 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 229 223 220 225 250 237 241 234 219 206 192 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.1 23.5 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 110 103 96 93 91 87 85 83 85 84 87 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 63 61 58 54 45 36 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 28 24 22 22 19 17 13 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 73 71 72 62 30 55 27 49 41 55 50 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -31 -37 -13 -1 -12 6 -19 -13 -22 -15 -8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 9 16 13 11 6 3 1 -4 -3 -5 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1320 1344 1373 1382 1378 1343 1289 1244 1206 1184 1169 1155 1141 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.6 123.3 123.9 124.4 124.8 124.6 124.2 123.8 123.5 123.3 123.0 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -28. -35. -42. -47. -52. -57. -61. -65. -69. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -14. -18. -24. -27. -29. -28. -25. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -30. -40. -53. -65. -78. -88.-100.-108.-115.-118.-118.-119.-120.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.9 121.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##