* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 89 80 71 63 50 38 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 89 80 71 63 50 38 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 89 78 70 61 48 38 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 8 8 11 18 28 26 19 19 22 13 14 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 6 6 2 7 5 0 3 2 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 235 238 228 212 231 234 250 241 235 197 205 198 209 185 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.3 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 116 111 108 105 100 97 93 91 90 91 90 89 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 66 65 62 60 55 48 36 27 20 17 14 9 7 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 29 31 29 28 25 23 20 18 15 11 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 72 70 64 67 49 37 39 53 57 47 53 46 34 23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 -16 -21 -29 -20 -19 11 -3 -26 -40 -38 -20 -15 -24 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 8 9 9 9 3 3 -5 -3 -9 -8 -6 0 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1315 1336 1363 1388 1407 1405 1366 1312 1267 1244 1229 1206 1184 1169 1147 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.9 122.7 123.4 124.1 125.0 125.1 124.8 124.5 124.3 124.1 123.8 123.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -28. -36. -43. -50. -56. -61. -65. -68. -73. -76. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -15. -20. -25. -30. -32. -30. -28. -27. -25. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -29. -37. -50. -62. -75. -86. -98.-108.-114.-116.-118.-122.-122.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.3 121.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##