* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 107 96 89 71 56 42 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 115 107 96 89 71 56 42 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 112 101 90 80 62 49 41 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 9 6 10 16 27 25 17 10 16 21 19 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 5 5 1 3 6 0 6 6 3 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 291 274 245 238 239 212 219 228 249 244 234 195 197 185 186 159 169 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.4 25.3 25.3 24.6 24.6 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 117 116 116 108 106 100 96 93 92 92 91 91 90 90 90 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 61 63 59 56 50 44 33 23 14 8 6 6 5 5 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 32 33 30 27 25 23 21 18 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 66 77 75 67 72 55 60 70 78 88 81 71 46 32 24 23 200 MB DIV 17 19 15 -7 6 1 0 14 0 -22 -20 -31 -33 -28 -27 -17 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 6 14 15 8 10 4 3 -2 -2 -5 1 -9 -12 -3 -14 LAND (KM) 1300 1308 1321 1344 1373 1419 1427 1420 1392 1346 1308 1277 1261 1253 1237 1229 1221 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.7 121.4 122.2 122.9 124.4 125.3 125.8 125.9 125.6 125.3 125.0 124.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 7 4 3 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -8. -13. -18. -28. -38. -49. -59. -67. -75. -81. -85. -88. -92. -97.-102. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -23. -28. -32. -29. -26. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -24. -31. -49. -64. -78. -92.-104.-115.-126.-134.-137.-139.-142.-146. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.6 120.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -0.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 548.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##