* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 118 107 98 78 59 42 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 124 118 107 98 78 59 42 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 120 111 99 87 70 56 45 37 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 6 8 7 7 12 25 28 24 18 18 24 30 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 4 4 1 -1 5 2 7 5 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 301 301 270 234 253 200 229 232 249 236 222 202 186 186 198 192 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.4 25.4 24.8 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 122 117 117 110 108 103 97 94 93 92 90 89 88 87 87 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 62 63 60 57 52 49 39 29 18 10 6 7 10 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 32 33 31 27 25 23 21 20 15 10 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 58 65 71 75 57 67 42 66 57 82 75 72 56 49 23 63 200 MB DIV 33 7 24 20 5 -7 -2 -12 0 1 -20 -31 -32 -28 -8 0 0 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 5 14 11 10 7 2 5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -6 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1287 1300 1318 1336 1360 1418 1436 1443 1438 1400 1363 1324 1287 1249 1234 1234 1234 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.0 18.0 18.8 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.2 120.9 121.7 122.4 123.9 125.1 125.9 126.2 126.0 125.8 125.5 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -19. -30. -41. -52. -62. -71. -80. -86. -90. -93. -97.-102.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -19. -21. -26. -29. -32. -29. -27. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -7. -18. -27. -47. -66. -83. -99.-110.-121.-134.-143.-150.-153.-156.-157. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 15.4 119.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 538.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##