* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 119 113 103 87 70 54 40 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 122 119 113 103 87 70 54 40 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 119 113 104 94 78 64 52 44 37 30 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 5 6 7 3 10 15 26 22 13 6 11 16 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 -1 1 5 1 1 1 4 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 232 301 326 273 275 251 224 236 240 246 247 257 237 230 205 204 204 SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.5 25.9 25.6 25.5 24.7 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 128 122 119 118 108 106 101 98 95 94 93 91 90 93 94 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 64 67 62 60 58 54 49 46 41 28 19 12 8 9 8 10 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 31 32 30 27 25 23 21 16 12 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 74 81 82 67 67 57 54 72 80 86 53 53 34 23 25 200 MB DIV 61 28 16 35 17 0 -18 -21 -15 -4 -12 -25 -44 -28 -35 -2 -27 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 0 5 9 7 7 3 2 -2 -1 0 -1 -5 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1266 1282 1302 1320 1344 1401 1447 1473 1482 1484 1471 1457 1435 1397 1380 1386 1377 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.7 120.3 121.1 121.8 123.4 124.8 125.8 126.4 126.6 126.7 126.7 126.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -35. -46. -55. -64. -71. -77. -81. -84. -88. -93. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -17. -22. -25. -26. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -7. -17. -33. -50. -66. -80. -92.-103.-116.-123.-128.-130.-133.-136. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.3 119.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 3.7% 1.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##