* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 81 80 71 64 57 52 43 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 81 80 71 64 57 52 43 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 85 80 76 72 64 56 49 43 38 33 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 3 3 9 10 5 11 20 31 20 15 2 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 4 5 2 2 4 -3 2 4 -1 -2 1 4 7 0 SHEAR DIR 293 306 294 284 307 269 285 234 249 237 247 247 258 243 214 183 190 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.2 25.5 25.4 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 124 124 117 117 109 107 104 102 101 99 99 99 98 97 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.7 -51.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 61 61 60 56 52 48 42 30 18 12 11 11 11 11 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 31 33 31 30 29 28 26 25 21 15 9 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 74 89 87 99 77 74 69 78 106 74 25 9 15 7 35 200 MB DIV 66 64 74 57 47 29 -1 -6 -9 -10 -15 -34 -54 -56 -40 -15 -12 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 4 4 9 9 7 5 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -4 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 1168 1198 1216 1235 1257 1313 1394 1454 1496 1528 1569 1610 1643 1668 1685 1711 1728 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.5 119.1 119.7 120.4 121.8 123.4 124.9 126.0 126.7 127.3 127.8 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -41. -45. -48. -51. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -18. -23. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -10. -19. -26. -33. -38. -47. -55. -65. -76. -84. -89. -91. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.4 117.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 11.1% 3.5% 3.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 9.8% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##