* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 74 77 82 83 81 74 73 67 62 56 52 50 47 47 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 74 77 82 83 81 74 73 67 62 56 52 50 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 72 74 76 74 68 62 57 52 49 45 43 39 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 17 16 12 6 6 6 3 8 5 9 5 3 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -7 -4 0 2 6 10 8 1 1 0 0 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 30 21 8 1 351 331 297 222 227 247 241 289 299 322 260 305 288 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.4 26.3 26.2 26.6 27.1 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 152 145 136 125 124 128 133 123 120 117 113 112 112 110 105 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 72 68 65 64 64 60 62 61 57 53 52 49 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 28 28 33 34 35 34 36 34 34 31 29 26 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 38 41 40 47 51 61 80 82 89 75 63 56 51 32 29 200 MB DIV 92 73 56 62 54 68 83 82 52 11 16 -6 -31 -19 1 -8 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -1 0 1 6 2 0 0 3 -1 7 3 5 1 3 LAND (KM) 1242 1254 1232 1202 1176 1139 1124 1142 1170 1229 1308 1420 1511 1613 1695 1781 1861 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.2 114.8 115.3 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.3 119.5 120.8 122.2 123.7 125.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 33 23 15 7 1 1 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 18. 15. 13. 9. 6. 3. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 22. 23. 21. 14. 13. 7. 2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.9 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.56 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 23.1% 22.5% 18.8% 13.2% 16.1% 12.3% 10.0% Logistic: 4.2% 17.9% 3.7% 2.3% 2.4% 1.8% 3.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 4.7% 26.2% 9.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 22.4% 11.9% 8.2% 6.2% 6.8% 5.4% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##