* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 69 76 84 89 96 97 91 78 73 66 60 53 47 44 42 41 V (KT) LAND 60 69 76 84 89 96 97 91 78 73 66 60 53 47 44 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 60 69 77 83 86 90 85 76 67 59 53 48 44 40 37 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 20 14 16 9 13 7 11 7 9 7 12 8 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 -3 -4 -1 3 3 10 8 4 1 1 0 1 2 7 SHEAR DIR 40 24 13 2 353 325 310 290 230 255 248 249 250 293 270 290 304 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.7 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 154 150 145 133 127 126 127 129 120 116 113 110 110 110 111 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 73 66 69 67 64 65 63 63 60 55 50 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 29 29 31 35 35 33 35 34 34 32 29 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 35 37 35 41 43 36 54 49 63 68 76 71 70 58 40 39 30 200 MB DIV 132 76 63 62 61 55 74 54 65 48 26 4 -11 -36 -5 -28 -26 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 2 0 3 -1 0 1 2 4 5 6 6 LAND (KM) 1218 1235 1242 1217 1195 1144 1119 1114 1125 1151 1205 1284 1386 1477 1547 1605 1665 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.7 114.3 114.7 115.1 115.8 116.6 117.5 118.5 119.6 120.8 122.0 123.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 58 43 31 23 16 6 3 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 13. 16. 15. 18. 16. 15. 12. 8. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 24. 29. 36. 37. 31. 18. 13. 6. 0. -7. -13. -16. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.6 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.06 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.62 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 8.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.34 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.7% 44.2% 33.4% 26.5% 18.9% 0.0% 14.6% 10.5% Logistic: 26.2% 51.3% 19.4% 14.5% 9.9% 7.9% 5.6% 2.1% Bayesian: 47.2% 67.1% 48.7% 36.1% 11.1% 15.1% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 36.4% 54.2% 33.8% 25.7% 13.3% 7.7% 7.2% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##