* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012015 05/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 51 60 68 83 90 95 87 76 71 65 55 50 42 37 31 V (KT) LAND 35 42 51 60 68 83 90 95 87 76 71 65 55 50 42 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 46 51 56 68 79 83 79 68 58 49 42 37 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 13 15 13 14 14 14 19 19 15 19 15 17 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 -3 -6 -6 0 0 1 7 5 8 3 5 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 21 33 16 349 332 310 297 258 230 247 241 243 245 269 268 266 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.2 27.6 27.1 26.3 25.7 25.3 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 160 157 154 144 138 132 124 118 113 112 114 115 114 115 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -50.6 -51.7 -51.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 75 77 78 77 77 72 68 69 63 68 71 74 73 67 63 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 21 22 26 29 35 34 33 35 35 32 32 29 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 36 32 34 35 31 35 25 36 25 44 45 50 50 51 35 14 -3 200 MB DIV 110 104 105 74 63 87 73 127 97 89 52 67 15 31 -32 -12 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 4 1 -1 0 2 1 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1088 1095 1109 1118 1130 1075 1017 957 915 883 869 834 828 853 868 869 871 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.6 112.3 112.8 113.3 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.5 116.0 116.5 117.0 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 0 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 80 77 72 61 45 21 12 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 21. 22. 21. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 23. 25. 24. 26. 25. 19. 17. 12. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 25. 33. 48. 55. 60. 52. 41. 36. 30. 20. 15. 7. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 110.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ONE 05/28/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.90 13.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.69 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.91 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.70 3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.9% 60.5% 42.8% 26.5% 24.8% 37.2% 37.5% 28.6% Logistic: 48.5% 83.5% 63.4% 52.7% 36.8% 56.7% 48.1% 16.8% Bayesian: 32.8% 78.3% 71.6% 59.8% 47.3% 62.1% 33.2% 9.4% Consensus: 35.4% 74.1% 59.3% 46.3% 36.3% 52.0% 39.6% 18.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ONE 05/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##