* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012015 05/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 46 44 42 39 35 34 31 30 29 28 26 25 25 25 27 V (KT) LAND 50 49 46 44 36 30 28 31 28 27 26 24 23 22 22 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 44 37 30 28 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 22 18 11 14 9 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 -2 -6 -1 -3 0 -3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 347 351 11 22 8 20 354 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.1 21.0 20.1 19.2 17.8 17.2 14.4 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 84 79 76 74 72 73 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 73 70 68 67 67 68 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.0 -58.7 -59.0 -59.1 -58.8 -59.1 -59.1 -58.7 -57.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.8 0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 4 4 7 5 7 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 50 55 59 61 61 67 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 16 14 12 10 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -72 -104 -124 -113 -117 -93 -23 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -28 -7 3 -19 17 -31 23 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 1 2 3 1 20 -12 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 121 84 47 8 -37 -78 -9 112 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.1 33.4 33.8 34.2 35.3 36.9 38.8 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.3 78.5 78.6 78.6 77.9 76.1 73.4 70.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 8 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. -24. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. -24. -25. -25. -25. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.7 78.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012015 ANA 05/09/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012015 ANA 05/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012015 ANA 05/09/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 46 44 36 30 28 31 28 27 26 24 23 22 22 21 23 18HR AGO 50 49 46 44 36 30 28 31 28 27 26 24 23 22 22 21 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 36 30 28 31 28 27 26 24 23 22 22 21 23 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 32 26 24 27 24 23 22 20 19 18 18 17 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT