* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012015 05/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 42 41 38 36 33 33 32 43 45 34 25 24 26 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 42 41 38 31 28 31 30 41 43 32 23 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 41 41 40 33 29 35 39 48 53 51 50 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 15 19 21 19 22 15 18 14 18 7 24 33 29 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 -4 -2 6 13 13 22 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 335 346 351 351 356 10 10 9 354 330 246 248 267 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.8 24.7 22.9 20.9 19.0 18.0 18.4 13.3 10.1 4.2 13.6 10.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 96 97 100 99 88 79 75 75 78 72 72 71 76 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 80 82 84 83 76 70 69 70 73 70 70 71 74 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -58.3 -58.4 -58.7 -58.7 -58.7 -58.8 -59.1 -59.3 -59.2 -59.0 -58.3 -57.8 -57.3 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -1.8 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 5 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 49 50 54 59 62 64 71 63 55 52 55 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 18 17 15 12 12 10 11 10 18 21 16 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -14 -29 -39 -37 -71 -78 -95 -86 -52 12 77 27 -27 -52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -32 1 -28 -24 -11 -26 -8 14 6 20 48 38 12 -8 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 2 4 0 5 -1 18 16 23 28 96 97 62 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 253 235 217 192 168 92 33 -44 -55 173 231 263 253 1099 1114 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.7 31.8 32.0 32.2 32.8 33.5 34.5 36.0 37.9 40.3 42.9 45.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.4 77.5 77.6 77.8 77.9 78.4 78.6 78.1 76.4 73.2 67.9 60.4 50.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 8 13 20 27 34 41 43 41 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -13. -16. -16. -20. -10. -6. -13. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. 3. 5. -6. -15. -16. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 77.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012015 ANA 05/08/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012015 ANA 05/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012015 ANA 05/08/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 41 42 41 38 31 28 31 30 41 43 32 23 23 24 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 41 40 37 30 27 30 29 40 42 31 22 22 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 36 33 26 23 26 25 36 38 27 18 18 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 30 27 20 17 20 19 30 32 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT