* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 81 73 64 48 33 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 81 73 64 48 33 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 87 81 72 63 46 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 29 34 37 44 51 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 15 15 15 18 10 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 198 210 217 224 219 230 227 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.1 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 149 146 148 153 154 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 75 77 72 67 55 46 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 23 44 52 72 74 37 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 143 165 170 108 67 47 10 -14 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 17 17 21 13 2 0 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 785 725 673 594 501 311 223 165 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.4 20.2 21.5 22.5 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.6 110.7 110.5 110.2 109.2 108.4 107.9 107.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 9 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 28 24 17 11 12 33 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -22. -27. -30. -34. -36. -39. -43. -46. -50. -51. -51. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -17. -26. -42. -57. -64. -70. -74. -76. -79. -82. -86. -89. -91. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.7 110.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.92 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##