* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 86 89 87 78 61 44 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 86 89 87 78 61 44 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 73 80 83 84 80 68 52 38 29 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 11 15 30 29 41 37 33 38 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 5 6 9 19 13 7 8 10 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 253 225 209 222 221 228 227 244 244 259 265 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 156 153 151 143 139 137 140 139 137 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 73 73 74 73 61 50 39 34 30 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 22 21 21 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -21 -18 -12 -1 30 44 63 60 52 23 19 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 100 139 146 138 112 46 51 -5 14 -36 -12 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 5 10 15 9 4 3 4 8 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 826 810 770 745 669 578 478 379 294 200 153 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 16.4 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.8 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.9 108.9 109.5 110.1 110.5 110.4 110.0 109.7 109.5 109.9 110.9 111.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 31 37 33 31 27 14 8 7 9 9 16 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. -29. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -3. -8. -12. -16. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 24. 22. 13. -4. -21. -34. -46. -54. -60. -62. -64. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.5 106.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 14.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 16.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.56 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.85 15.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 -13.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 14.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.84 11.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.29 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 78% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 6.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 78.2% 85.7% 77.3% 73.9% 54.2% 40.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 59.4% 69.7% 57.8% 48.9% 17.5% 17.9% 1.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 84.9% 86.3% 91.6% 85.5% 21.1% 23.3% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 74.1% 80.6% 75.6% 69.4% 30.9% 27.2% 0.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##