* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 49 59 67 71 71 62 42 27 18 19 19 17 17 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 49 59 67 71 71 62 42 24 26 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 36 38 44 51 54 50 38 25 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 9 6 4 8 11 22 31 43 52 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 0 12 20 12 10 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 185 9 23 29 34 318 243 222 203 225 236 246 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.1 29.1 28.6 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 149 151 154 162 160 155 149 146 156 152 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 4 5 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 72 74 74 77 74 74 75 74 62 53 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 18 20 22 23 22 19 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 15 9 5 0 -2 -3 29 37 75 69 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 43 50 57 74 103 170 178 127 60 5 -40 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 3 14 20 17 -2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 868 893 918 923 916 887 806 692 548 350 195 -15 -275 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.4 11.7 13.4 15.3 17.2 19.0 20.9 23.0 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.2 104.1 105.1 106.1 108.0 109.3 109.9 109.7 108.7 107.5 106.0 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 11 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 15 15 13 12 29 39 31 19 9 52 16 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -5. -12. -20. -20. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 7. -7. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 32. 36. 36. 27. 7. -8. -17. -16. -16. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.3 102.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 24.3% 22.5% 17.9% 12.4% 20.9% 42.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 39.7% 19.6% 11.1% 5.0% 26.3% 49.7% 17.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.3% 3.3% Consensus: 5.8% 21.6% 14.1% 9.7% 5.8% 15.9% 31.4% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##