* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/31/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 49 54 62 71 79 80 71 62 41 31 30 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 49 54 62 71 79 80 71 62 41 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 43 44 50 60 69 69 57 42 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 7 7 2 4 7 17 28 30 49 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -4 -3 -2 -3 4 17 20 11 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 185 8 7 26 345 273 209 193 218 233 252 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.7 29.1 29.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 149 151 151 156 162 160 155 152 157 158 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 5 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 67 71 73 75 73 71 72 69 59 48 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 18 19 22 25 28 28 23 20 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 17 16 16 9 5 5 12 22 41 88 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 72 68 56 49 64 117 184 176 91 50 -12 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 1 12 27 8 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 778 825 871 894 916 896 827 733 575 376 160 14 -231 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.6 9.7 10.6 12.1 13.8 15.8 18.0 20.1 22.2 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.9 102.6 103.5 104.3 106.1 107.6 108.7 108.9 108.3 107.2 105.8 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 9 11 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 14 17 17 14 36 38 30 15 35 24 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 1. -5. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 18. 19. 13. 9. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 9. 14. 22. 31. 39. 40. 31. 22. 1. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.7 101.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.75 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.80 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.20 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 24.7% 24.0% 19.7% 13.4% 22.3% 36.5% 52.0% Logistic: 1.3% 7.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.3% 3.9% 10.0% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 4.9% 10.9% 9.1% 7.1% 4.6% 8.7% 15.5% 20.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##